Sturgeon CANCELS New Year over Omicron fears: First Minister orders NO mixing between Scottish households, bans spectators from football matches and makes pubs table-service only – heaping pressure on Boris to act
- Nicola Sturgeon unveiled new Covid restrictions for Scotland which will come into effect after Christmas
- Limits will be placed on large scale public live events as Ms Sturgeon cancelled New Year celebrations
- She also said that from December 27 people in Scotland will be urged to limit socialising and stay at home
- Boris Johnson is sitting on the fence over Covid curbs after intense wrangling at Cabinet meeting yesterday
- PM has insisted the government is monitoring data ‘hour by hour’ with key evidence due today and tomorrow
- Rishi Sunak unveiling a new package of support for businesses stricken as customers stay away at Christmas
- Prospect of new restrictions in England at Christmas fading away but fears of tougher rules by the New Year
Nicola Sturgeon today cancelled large scale New Year celebrations in Scotland as she unveiled additional coronavirus restrictions to slow the spread of the Omicron variant.
The Scottish First Minister said the advice for Christmas Day remains unchanged, with people allowed to meet with family but urged to be cautious.
But from December 26 for three weeks there will be attendance limits placed on live public events which will torpedo Hogmanay festivities.
The limits will not apply to private life events like weddings, but Ms Sturgeon said for indoor standing events the limit will be 100 people, for indoor seated events it will be 200 and for outdoor events 500 seated or standing.
This will mean that from Boxing Day football and other sporting matches in Scotland will effectively be spectator-free.
Ms Sturgeon also said that from December 27 the Scottish Government is advising people to return to limiting their social contacts ‘as much as you possibly can’ as she urged to nation to ‘please stay at home’.
The moves will pile the pressure on Boris Johnson after he yesterday delayed making a decision on imposing new coronavirus curbs in England as ministers wait for key data to be given to them today.
Mr Johnson is under pressure from his scientific experts to act now but there has been heavy criticism of the claim from SAGE modellers that deaths could reach 6,000 a day in a worst scenario, and although daily cases have been rising sharply and topped 100,000 on December 15 they are still short of the levels feared.
Ms Sturgeon appeared to fire a shot at the Prime Minister as she said ‘we know from experience that if we wait until the data tells us conclusively that we have a problem… it will already be too late to act to avoid that problem’.
Her announcements came after Rishi Sunak unveiled a £1billion bailout for stricken businesses as Mr Johnson sits on the fence over Covid curbs amid infighting among ministers and top scientists.
The Chancellor has announced grants of up to £6,000 for hospitality and leisure firms being crippled by a wave of cancellations following the emergence of the Omicron strain.
The taxpayer will also cover the cost of statutory sick pay for Covid-related absences for companies with fewer than 250 employees.
The move – which was given a broad welcome by industry – comes despite the PM declaring last night that there will be no more restrictions in England yet, defying massive pressure from experts who warn the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed by the mutant strain.
Mr Johnson admitted the decision was ‘finely balanced’ – with speculation that the government could still need to act with a ‘circuit breaker’ before New Year if new crucial evidence due today and tomorrow show the situation deteriorating quickly. They include an assessment from an Imperial College team on the severity of Omicron.
However, it now looks too late to bring in any legal restrictions before December 25, with the premier having vowed to give restive MPs a say in advance.
Mr Johnson said the latest Omicron data will be kept under ‘hour by hour’ review, with the holding line coming after a long and ‘fractious’ Cabinet meeting, where ministers including Mr Sunak demanded more solid proof on the threat from the Omicron variant before signing off on further measures.
The PM is expected to be handed more data on the impact of Omicron today amid questions over the accuracy of SAGE modelling.
Leading statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter has pointed out that around half of new Covid admissions in Omicron hotspot London only tested positive after arriving at hospital, possibly for a different ailment – although he stressed they would still add to pressure on the health service.
Official figures out today revealed that Covid was mentioned on 764 death certificates registered in England and Wales in the week to December 10 – 4 per cent down from the previous week and the lowest level since October.
Nicola Sturgeon today cancelled large scale New Year celebrations in Scotland as she unveiled additional coronavirus restrictions to slow the spread of the Omicron variant
On another intense day of coronavirus drama:
- Thousands more people could be released from isolation in time for Christmas as ministers prepare to cut the period from 10 days to seven days;
- Sir Jeremy Farrar, a former member of SAGE, has backed the position of waiting for another day to see updated evidence on Omicron;
- Mr Johnson’s personal rating have slumped again, with YouGov finding a net minus 48 think he is performing well – down from minus 35 last month. Just 22 per cent approve of the government with 60 per cent disapproving;
- The NHS has given a million Covid jabs in a single day for the first time, but still appears to be off the pace to hit the New Year target on boosters;
- London’s New Year’s Eve celebration event in Trafalgar Square has been axed with Sadiq Khan urging people to watch TV instead.
Ms Sturgeon said that Omicron is now the dominant strain of coronavirus in Scotland, accounting for 62.9 per cent of all cases, with the R number for the spread of the disease now ‘well above three’.
There were some 5,242 positive Covid cases in Scotland yesterday, with 515 people in hospital and 37 in intensive care units. There has also been a further nine deaths, taking the total to 9,790.
Delivering a statement to MSPs at Holyrood this afternoon, Ms Sturgeon said she was ‘not changing the advice for Christmas’ that was announced last week.
She said: ‘It is important that with just a few days to go there is certainty about family gatherings on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. I am not asking anyone to change these.’
But she said new curbs will be imposed immediately after Christmas as she said: ‘My first new request of everyone today is this, from the 27th of December as we come out of the Christmas weekend and at least until the end of the first week in January when we will review this advice again, please go back to limiting your contacts as much as you possibly can.
‘Please stay at home as much as is feasible. When you do go out, maintain physical distancing from people not in your own group.
‘And difficult though it is, please follow this advice over New Year. Minimise Hogmanay socialising as much as you can.’
Tough new limits will also be placed on public live events, with Ms Sturgeon telling MSPs: ‘First, from the 26th of December, inclusive of that date, for a period of up to three weeks we intend to place limits on the size of live public events that can take place.
‘This does not apply to private life events such as weddings. For indoor standing events the limit will be 100, for indoor seated events it will be 200 and for outdoor events 500 seated or standing.
‘Physical distancing of one metre will be required at events that go ahead within these limits. This will of course make sports matches including football effectively spectator-free over this three week period, a situation similar to that in Wales from Boxing Day.
‘It will also mean unfortunately that large scale Hogmanay celebrations including that planned here in our capital city will not proceed.’
Mr Sunak finally unveiled the support for businesses after bars and restaurants were left deserted following increasingly grim warnings from Chris Whitty and other experts. The spending will make another dent in the public finances, after new figures revealed today that borrowing has risen above forecasts with the economy stalling.
A survey by Ipsos MORI revealed a majority of Britons are now taking matters into their own hands to reduce their chances of catching coronavirus, with 58 per cent saying they have avoided public transport or plan to do so, and 57 per cent saying the same about going to pubs and restaurants, and social gatherings with friends and family.
Local authorities will administer the £683million of hospitality and leisure grants, with 200,000 businesses set to benefit – although the criteria do not seem clear. Another £102million will go into discretionary funds, again controlled by town halls, and the emergency fund for cultural organisations will get a £30million boost.
The devolved administrations will receive around £150million of funding through the Barnett formula as part of the support announced, with around £80million for the Scottish Government, £50million for the Welsh Government and £25million for the Northern Ireland Executive.
Mr Sunak gave a strong hint that the government will go further if more restrictions are needed, saying they cannot ‘rule anything out’.
‘People will be able to look at our track record over the last year or two and supporting people and businesses, especially in the hospitality industry throughout this crisis,’ he told journalists.
‘I will always respond proportionately and appropriately to the situation that we face. People can have confidence in that.
‘Where we are now we’ve responded, I think, generously today, the grants that we’ve outlined up to £6,000 are comparable to the grants that we provided for hospitality businesses when they were completely closed earlier this year. So, there’s a benchmark for you.
‘Also, it’s important to remember we have support already in place that lasts all the way to next spring.
‘So, for example, a reduced rate of VAT for the hospitality and tourism sectors, and this year they are benefiting from a 75 per cent discount on their business rates bill. Those types of things last all the way to next March to support the industry.’
Boris Johnson (pictured in Downing Street today) has stepped back from imposing punitive lockdown curbs that would have ruined Christmas
The rush hour at King’s Cross in London was quieter than normal this morning amid Covid concerns and with Christmas just a few days away
Empty tables and chairs at a restaurant in London’s West End last night as the hospitality sector faces another crisis
A near-deserted Tube train this morning – with London Mayor Sadiq Khan having already cancelled the New Year celebrations in Trafalgar Square
The latest YouGov research has found just 22 per cent approve of the government, with 60 per cent disapproving
A queue for a vaccination centre at Hampden Park in Glasgow today, with Nicola Sturgeon due to announce whether more restrictions will be brought in for Scotland after Christmas
Could the New Year see a ban on socialising indoors and the Rule of Six outside?
Speculation is mounting that the government could impose a a two-week ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown in England after Christmas.
Ministers and officials have apparently pencilled in December 28 as a possible date to trigger the new curbs.
The preparations come after SAGE suggested which would effectively re-impose ‘Step 2’ of Boris Johnson’s old lockdown exit roadmap for two weeks.
It is unclear which parts of ‘Step 2’ could be included but a crackdown on indoor social contact is viewed as the most likely move.
Below is a breakdown of the measures included in the old ‘Step 2’ which was in force in April this year.
Ban on indoor socialising: People were not allowed to socialise indoors, except with members of the same household. The rule of six applied outdoors.
Curbs on hospitality: Bars, pubs and restaurants were closed indoors but could serve people outdoors where the rule of six applied.
Shops: All retail remained open, including hairdressers, beauty and nail salons.
Domestic travel: People were advised to minimise travel as much as possible.
Education: Early years settings, schools and colleges were open for all students.
Kate Nicholls, chief executive of the UKHospitality industry body, said: ‘This is a generous package building on existing hospitality support measures to provide an immediate emergency cash injection for those businesses who, through no fault of their own, have seen their most valuable trading period annihilated.
‘It will help to secure jobs and business viability in the short term, particularly among small businesses in the sector, and we particularly welcome the boost to funds for the supply chain and event and business catering companies so badly affected by the reintroduction of work from home guidelines.
‘There is now a real urgency in getting this funding to businesses so we urge local authorities to prioritise distribution of funds to make sure jobs and businesses are preserved through this difficult period.’
The president of British Chambers of Commerce, Conservative peer Baroness Ruby McGregor-Smith, called for clarity on who will be eligible.
She told BBC Radio 4’s World at One: ‘We asked very much for grant support, so we are delighted that grant support has been given, but we don’t know yet the definition of eligible businesses and companies.’
She added: ‘I think it is a good start. Our concern is around the fact that we need business confidence and we have got uncertainty.
‘We need to know that we can stay open and continue to trade and consumers will return.’
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves complained that the government had been ‘dragged kicking and screaming’ to offering support.
‘The PM continues to be too distracted by revolt from Tory backbenchers to act in the public interest. Businesses and workers are crying out for clarity on what restrictions are down the road as many continue to be hit hard,’ she said.
Senior Tories hailed the decision to avoid immediate restrictions this morning, while some scientists accused Mr Johnson of ‘caving in’ to sceptics in the Cabinet after ‘losing authority’ following a series of scandals.
Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg is understood to have urged the government during the meeting to ‘trust people’ to respond to the alarm about the rapid spread of the new strain, rather than bringing back draconian laws.
Mr Johnson is said to have cautioned that explanation will not wash if the NHS is at serious risk of being underwhelmed, but eventually went with the majority view among his team. Critics said he had ‘caved in’, although No10 denied that he was overruled, stressing he did not make any firm proposal.
Mr Johnson was boosted by Sir Jeremy Farrar, a former member of SAGE, backing the position of waiting for another day to see updated figures on hospitalisations. He told the Today programme that ‘each of us can do things today that will make the chance of further restrictions lighter’.
After government borrowing for November came in higher than predicted this morning, Cabinet Office minister Steve Barclay highlighted the ‘economic consequences’ of more restrictions.
Mr Barclay told BBC Breakfast: ‘The Prime Minister has given a commitment that where there are additional regulations bought forward that Parliament would be recalled in order that Members of Parliament can scrutinise and debate those issues, but we are not at that stage.
‘We are looking closely at the data and we need to recognise there are economic consequences to further restrictions.’
UK records more than 100,000 daily cases for first time
The UK recorded more than 100,000 Covid cases in a single day for the first time ever last week, new data shows after the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
A total of 102,297 people tested positive for the virus last Wednesday, according to backdated Government figures — marking the first time they have risen above triple digits officially since the start of the pandemic.
The figure looks at positive cases by ‘specimen date’, the day someone took the test, and is different from daily reported cases announced by Government every day, which looks at when someone received their result.
It can take up to five days for the number of positive tests on any single day to be fully counted so more days where Covid cases have breached 100,000 may emerge in the coming days.
But case numbers are still well below the projections of gloomy Government modelling which said there were up to 400,000 infections a day last week and that this could rise to 1million by the peak this winter.
Doubts about No10 scientific projections are believed to be the reason Boris Johnson has pumped the brakes on a Christmas lockdown, with ministers waiting for more concrete data on the variant.
Last Friday, the Department of Health reported 93,045 new Covid cases. Cases have barely moved in four days and a record 1.5million Britons are being tested for the virus every day currently, which suggests the issue is not a lack of tests.
With plans for the two-week ‘circuit breaker’ still said to be on the table, Mr Johnson last night warned he had to ‘reserve the possibility’ of further restrictions to control the spread of Omicron.
However he admitted the data was not clear enough to justify action now.
The PM has promised to consult parliament on any new legal curbs and it is highly unlikely that MPs could be recalled in time to act before the Christmas break.
A row erupted yesterday over modelling that had appeared to raise the threat of Christmas being ‘cancelled’ for a second year.
In forecasts leaked over the weekend, the SAGE committee cited modelling that without rapid action daily deaths could hit 6,000 in the worst case – and hospital admissions 10,000.
But with huge uncertainty over the severity of Omicron, ministers, MPs and experts rejected the ‘implausible’ predictions.
Tory former leader Iain Duncan Smith referred to SAGE modeller Graham Medley as ‘Graham Meddler’ during an interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, although it was not clear if it was a slip of the tongue.
Mr Duncan Smith said the government should only make a decision based on a ‘wider range of information on the effect of lockdown’.
‘We need to understand the effect of lockdown is dramatic across so many areas of people’s lives, which equates to the same as people going into hospital,’ he said.
Sir Jeremy, head of the Wellcome Trust, said people could take personal responsibility.
‘Omicron is spreading unbelievably fast. It is a phenomenal variant transmission,’ he said.
‘There is great uncertainty about what is it going to lead to in terms of pressure on the health system, people going to hospital, particularly people dying, but also what impact is it going to have on the broader society, staff absences, the ability to have functioning other services, so there is great uncertainty.
‘My personal view is that I think we can wait at the moment until there are more restrictions formally placed.’
Mr Barclay said there had been a ‘robust discussion’ at Cabinet about how to respond to the Omicron threat.
‘We are looking closely at the data, there is much we still don’t know about the severity of Omicron, how it leads to hospital admissions,’ he said.
‘We are looking particularly at the London data, there is a higher prevalence of Omicron particularly in London.’
Asked if he had been among members of the Cabinet calling for more data, Mr Barclay said: ‘I think it is right that the Cabinet has a full and robust discussion.
‘That is what people would expect. It is right that we look at the balance between protecting lives and livelihoods.’
Covid behind just one in 16 deaths in England and Wales, latest figures show
Covid was behind just one in 16 deaths in England and Wales in the two weeks after Omicron first hit Britain as Covid fatalities hit a two-month low, official figures revealed today.
Data from the Office for National Statistics shows just 764 of the nearly 12,000 fatalities recorded in the two nations were linked with the virus in the seven days up to December 10.
The weekly Covid fatalities is the lowest figure recorded in two months, since 713 were registered in the week to October 15.
These deaths — which include any fatality where the virus was mentioned on the certificate — were recorded in the two weeks after the first Omicron infections were identified in the UK.
Covid deaths are the biggest lagging indicator of trends in infection rates, because it takes three to four weeks for an infected person to die from the virus.
How deadly the surge in Omicron cases turns out to be remains to be seen, with uncertainties about how severe it is or how well vaccines protect against serious outcomes.
Those key unknowns combined with rising cases have put festive plans into doubt, despite the Prime Minister so far holding off imposing extra Covid curbs before Christmas.
However, Mr Barclay told LBC he had downsized the number of family members at his own Christmas celebrations this year, with only his in-laws attending.
He disclosed that Mr Sunak will give more details of support for businesses later.
‘The Chancellor was talking to industry leaders about this very issue last night. We will say more about this later today,’ he said.
‘We recognise obviously we are keen to keep businesses open and businesses should continue to plan for the bookings they have.
‘We absolutely recognise that through Plan B and the behaviour change there has been an impact on those bookings.’
Several ministers – including Mr Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss – made clear they were unwilling to back further restrictions until there was better information on the impact of Omicron.
Mr Sunak is understood to have resisted measures that could cost the economy billions ‘off the back of data that is patchy’. The most vocal supporters of a strong response are believed to have been Communities Secretary Michael Gove and Health Secretary Sajid Javid.
Afterwards Mr Johnson insisted the Government was monitoring the data ‘hour by hour’ and that the arguments for taking action were ‘very, very finely balanced’.
But he stressed there are still ‘uncertainties’ around the severity of the new strain, as well as the rate of hospital admissions associated with it and its impact on vaccines.
He added: ‘Unfortunately I must say to people that we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public, to protect public health, to protect our NHS. We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.’
Ministers were briefed at the virtual Cabinet meeting by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty.
Ms Truss apparently demanded ministers were given ‘really thorough data’ before approving curbs, and insisted there must be ‘incontrovertible evidence that we need more restrictions’.
Other ministers voicing similar concerns included Mr Rees-Mogg, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps and Scottish Secretary Alister Jack.
A very quiet road in London’s West End last night as people stay at home with just days to go until Christmas
Government borrowing came in above expectations at £17.4billion – only £4.9billion below last year and the second highest on record
A Cabinet source said: ‘There is more data coming on Wednesday, so that should make hopefully the picture a bit clearer and decisions easier to make.’
Tory former chief whip Mark Harper said that ‘not telling the public what’s going on is unacceptable’ as he said ‘we can do so much better than this’.
Covid isolation could be cut to seven days
Ministers are set to announce a major shake-up of Covid rules by slashing the number of self-isolation days to seven, in a bid to stop staff shortages grinding the country to a halt this Christmas.
Government experts are reportedly set to agree new advice which will see the self-isolation period cut by three days – bring it down from 10 days to seven.
However those self-isolating will need to have negative lateral flow tests on day six and seven in order to be eligible for early release.
It comes after epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson earlier this week backed the change, saying it would ‘not reduce the effectiveness of the measures that much’ if coupled with testing.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid has also reportedly been pushing hard for the reduction. An announcement is expected ‘imminently’.
SAGE social behaviour expert Stephen Reicher lashed out at Mr Johnson today, saying he had ‘caved in’ to lockdown-sceptic ministers and Tory MPs.
‘The arguments are very very finely balanced says ‘do nothing’ Johnson. On the one hand you have a scientific consensus that current measures are inadequate and that action is needed now. You have the NHS crying out in alarm. You have businesses crying out for support,’ Prof Reicher said.
‘On the other hand you have the right of the Tory Party which threatens rebellion. And the Prime Minister, who has lost political authority over his own party, just as he has lost moral authority over the country, caves in to the latter That’s not balanced It’s completely unhinged.’
Mr Johnson was under pressure from his SAGE experts to roll out extra curbs after they delivered dire warnings about what will happen if the PM fails to act urgently.
But other experts today slammed as ‘fictitious’ projections of 6,000 daily Covid deaths and 10,000 hospitalisations this winter in a worst-case scenario.
Coronavirus cases have also been around the 90,000 mark for four days now, after experts predicted they would double every two days.
It has also emerged that ministers are considering slashing isolation for those with Covid from 10 days to seven days due to fears Omicron will cripple the economy.
According to Government modelling, up to 2million people could be catching the ultra-transmissible variant per day during the peak this winter.
There are growing fears it could push the country into a de facto lockdown with so many isolating with mild illness, even if hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.
Sources say the change in policy is ‘being looked at’ and Health Secretary Sajid Javid is thought to be eager to shorten the isolation timeframe as hospitals and businesses struggle due to absent workers.
The lack of a final decision by Mr Johnson on extra curbs means it now seems unlikely that further restrictions will be rolled out before Christmas but there are mounting fears of a crackdown immediately after December 25.
The PM has promised that MPs will get a vote on any additional rules but Parliament is now in recess and recalling the House of Commons, holding a debate and then voting would take an estimated 48 hours.
Announcing curbs any later than today would therefore run the risk of people being told to follow new rules after they have already travelled to see family for Christmas.
The Times reported that Mr Johnson and the Cabinet delayed a decision because they were not yet convinced the latest Omicron data justified announcing new restrictions.
Can we afford another lockdown? Borrowing rises as economy stalls
The grim state of the public finances was laid bare today as the Covid surge and Omicron variant hammers the economy.
Government borrowing came in above expectations at £17.4billion – only £4.9billion below last year and the second highest on record.
Meanwhile, the country’s debt pile had reached £2.32trillion by the end of the month – equivalent to 96.1 per cent of GDP, the worst ratio since 1963.
The bleak picture comes amid mounting fears that the resurgence of the virus has derailed the recovery.
However, the newspaper said the Government could opt to impose a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown in England after Christmas, potentially starting on December 28.
It was reported on Saturday that Whitehall officials had drawn up regulations which would effectively re-impose ‘Step 2’ of the PM’s lockdown exit roadmap for two weeks.
That would mean a ban on indoor socialising and a return of the rule of six for outdoor gatherings. Bars, pubs and restaurants would be banned from serving people indoors.
The delay in Mr Johnson’s decision on extra curbs prompted a split within the Cabinet, with Sajid Javid warning ministers that no decision was a decision in itself. The Health Secretary asked experts to ‘kick the tyres’ of government modelling but they were unable to reassure him that the variant is less severe, reports the Times.
But Jacob Rees-Mogg insisted that the public should be trusted to make their own decisions as to how best to protect themselves and the family, rather than imposing more restrictions. He also criticised SAGE modelling while saying that there was not enough evidence to suggests new Covid measures were necessary.
The Prime Minister convened the meeting of his top team as he faced a growing Cabinet revolt over potential further Covid rules.
The PM had been presented with three options to tackle the variant amid surging case numbers, with the lowest level of intervention consisting of advice to limit household mixing indoors, according to The Telegraph.
The second level would see mandatory restrictions on household mixing, the return of social distancing and an 8pm curfew for pubs and restaurants while the third and toughest level would see a return to something close to a full lockdown.
Mr Johnson is now considering his next move, knowing that any decision to tighten Covid rules will spark a furious Tory backlash.
Downing Street at lunchtime refused to be drawn on the proposals which are reportedly under consideration, with the Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman telling reporters: ‘At this point we are still monitoring the data and keeping a very close eye on it… we would update if any decisions are taken.’
Boris Johnson has been presented with three options to slow the spread of the Omicron variant with the PM reportedly clearing his diary today for crunch meetings with scientists and advisers
Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, today refused to rule out more curbs being introduced before Christmas
Experts slam SAGE’s ‘fictitious’ doomsday scenario
Modelling by SAGE was today slammed as ‘fictitious’ after projecting 6,000 daily Covid deaths and 10,000 hospitalisations this winter in a worst-case scenario.
In advice to ministers published this weekend, the Government’s scientific advisers said there could be astronomical casualty numbers without more ‘stringent measures’.
SAGE’s modelling team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found there could be 10,400 hospitalisations in England per day at the peak of the outbreak in February in a worst-case scenario.
They assumed that Omicron will continue to grow exponentially even under Plan B curbs, two jabs offer just 50 per cent protection against severe disease from the mutant strain and boosters just 80 per cent.
The 6,000 deaths a day figure was calculated by Warwick University scientists and made similarly pessimistic assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, as well as that current curbs reduce transmission by just 20 per cent .
If both of these predictions were to come true, it would mean that 60 per cent of people who get admitted for Covid in the coming months will die.
By comparison, at the peak last January there were on average 4,000 admissions a day and 1,300 deaths giving a hospital-fatality rate of 32.5 per cent. Warwick said it factored in ‘extreme pressure’ put on the NHS by Omicron.
The worst-case scenarios were presented despite 48.8 per cent of over-12s being boosted, 81 per cent being double-jabbed, and reports from South Africa that the mutant strain is milder.
Crucially, the modellers did not look at any scenario in which Omicron causes milder disease than Delta or if people start to change their behaviour in the coming weeks in response to the variant.
SAGE’s chief modeller Professor Graham Medley from LSHTM revealed this weekend that the committee does not consider optimistic scenarios because ‘that doesn’t get decisions made’.
An ex-Government scientist who wished to remain anonymous today told MailOnline that the numbers are ‘fictitious’, adding: ‘Models have to simplify the world to predict the future, but clearly that’s an absurd futureThey said the doomsday scenarios were comparable to ‘science fiction’, adding: ‘But we don’t tend to question it because we worship numbers’.
Professor Carl Heneghan, director of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University and a GP, said this morning that ‘we are in deep, deep trouble of potentially talking ourselves into annual lockdowns’ as he argued the question should be ‘when are we going to treat people like adults?’.
But Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews and a member of government advisory body the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours (Spi-B), said ‘we need to reduce our contacts’.
Asked about Christmas, he said: ‘The safest thing is not to meet up before Christmas. If you want a good Christmas dinner, I would say be very careful about meeting up before Christmas.’
At least 10 Cabinet ministers are said to be resisting further curbs because they have concerns about the accuracy of expert modelling on the spread of Omicron.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is one of the ministers to have expressed concerns about the projected numbers, according to The Times, after SAGE warned there could be 3,000 patients a day in need of hospital treatment without urgent action.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, told the Cabinet on a call on Saturday that curbs should be rolled out as soon as possible but one third of senior ministers are said to be against the move.
Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab this morning refused to rule out additional restrictions before Christmas Day as he said he could not make ‘hard, fast guarantees’. He said the Government is aiming to take ‘informed decisions and of course we want to take them earlier rather than later’.
Tory MPs last night said any attempt to toughen rules before Christmas will provoke letters seeking to oust Mr Johnson as party leader.
The warnings came just 24 hours after Lord Frost, up to now a close ally of Mr Johnson, dramatically quit as Brexit Minister slating ‘coercive’ Covid curbs and high taxes.
Lord Frost walked out with a parting shot at the ‘direction of travel’ and saying he had hoped the end of lockdown would be ‘irreversible’. His departure was described as a ‘watershed moment’ in what had been an extremely damaging week for Mr Johnson.
Today’s coronavirus statistics showed there had been a further 91,743 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK as of 9am this morning. The Government said a further 44 people had died.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said there had been 8,044 additional confirmed cases of the Omicron variant, bringing the total confirmed cases of the variant in the UK to 45,145.
Families are desperate to spend Christmas together after last year’s Covid lockdown rules meant millions were forced to be apart or severely scale back their celebrations.
It is understood Mr Johnson is resisting calls for restrictions ahead of December 25, but there are mounting fears they will be imposed after that, spoiling New Year plans for millions.
Sajid Javid yesterday repeatedly declined to rule out imposing tough restrictions before Christmas as he warned there are ‘no guarantees’ Christmas Day will go ahead without a lockdown.
The Health Secretary acknowledged that data about the Omicron variant remained incomplete – but suggested it might be necessary to make decisions before a full picture is available.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, told the Cabinet during a call on Saturday that hospital admissions in England could reach 3,000 a day unless further curbs are introduced
In other coronavirus developments:
Mark Harper (left), chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs, urged ministers to ‘hold firm’ against more restrictions and not make any ‘knee-jerk restrictions’. Meanwhile former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith (right) said there was ‘no evidence’ for restrictions to be brought in ahead of Christmas
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